O matematicke pravdepodobnosti ceskosti Jary da Cirmrmana...

O matematicke pravdepodobnosti
ceskosti Jary da Cirmrmana...

Dnesni modernim cimrmanologum (hlavne tem ceskym) stale jeste nahle vysycha v krku, kdyz prijde na casto probirane tema a maji vysvetlit, PROC Jara da Cimrman tak stastne a spokojene opustil ceske zeme, odejel do Ameriky a stal se Americanem.

Jerry Zimmermann sam rekl, ze to, ze se stal Americanem, byla udalost predpoveditelna ("predictable event"). Vysvetlil to na prikladu hracich kostek: "Rolling dice is a popular pastime principally because it is a game of "chance". After all, Lady Luck can smile on anyone. This leads us to ask what a "chance" or "random" event is? The definition I like best is that a random event is "unpredictable event". Although negative definitions are not usually preferred, this one has some appeal. Everyone knows, after all, what a predictable event is. Yes, and my becoming an American was a predictable event."

Dale Mistr rekl, jak publikovano ve Wall Street Journal:
" A course in probability and statistics usually provides the last chance in a person's education for such insights into the workings of the physical world. The probabilistic perspective on the world is truly novel. From this view, the world is a chaotic and upredictable place, where God really does play dice. Nothing is known for sure. Everything must be estimated, with inevitable (and estimable) error. We cannot state that event A will happen, but rather that A will happen with a certain probability. This view is often forced upon us by nature. Many phenomena cannot be explained EXCEPT in terms of probability. Alternatively, we may choose to take this view because of practical considerations such as time or cost."

Novinari, nikoliv nepredpokladane zmateni Mistrovym vykladem, se i po tomto naprosto jasnem vysvetleni hloupe otazali, jaka tedy byla matematicka pravdepodobnost, ze by se Jara da Cimrman mohl vedecky, historicky a spolecensky uplatnit v zemi jeho docasneho pobytu, tedy ceskych zemich a tudiz kdyby zustal Cechem? Na coz Jara da Cimrman po kratkem zamysleni, kdyz mu ocividne pred ocima letely vsechny matematicke rovnice na vyreseni teto otazky, vlidne odvetil: "Well, that's fucking improbable.."

Uspokojeni novinari dale vzpomeli Cimrmanovy teorie "maximalni entropie" - kterou Mistr, jako i mnohe dalsi vedecke zalezitosti, zversoval - znela takto:

"Maximum Entropy

There's a great new branch of science which is coming to the fore,
And if you learn its principles you'll need to learn no more.
For though others may be doubtful (which can make them fuss and fret)
You'll be certain your uncertainty's as large as it can get.

This is no toy of theory, to invite the critic's jeering,
But a powerful new method used in modern engineering.
For uncertainty, which often in the past just gave us fidgets,
Has proved to be a vital tool in mass-producing widgets.

The procedure's very simple (it is due to Dr. Jaynes)
You just maximize the entropy, which doesn't take much brains.
Then you form a certain function which we designate by Z,
Differentiate its log by every lambda that you see.

AND LO! - we see before us (there is nothing more to do)
All the laws of thermal physics, and decision theory too.
Possibilities are endless, no frontier is yet in sight,
And regardless of your ignorance, you'll always know you're right!

So, are you faced with problems you can barely understand?
Do you have to make decisions, though the facts are not at hand?
Perhaps you'd like to win a game you don't know how to play.
Just apply your lack of knowledge in a systematic way."

Udalosti vecera se ale stalo, kdyz Cimrman, potesen uspechem a znamosti svych teorii - tohle by se mu v Cesku proste nestalo!!! - prednesl - primo EX ABRUPTO - novou, revidovanou a novymi udaji doplnenou verzi sve teorie a taktez ve versich!

"Maximum Entropy Revisited

There's fine old branch of science coming back now to the fore,
And if you learn its principles you'll need to grope no more.
For though others may be blinded (which can make them twist and turn)
You'll be certain that you see whatever is there to discern.

This is no cut-and-try device, empirical ad hockery,
But a principle of reasoning, of proven optimality.
For prior information, which empiricism spurns,
Has proved to be the pivot point on which decision turns.

The procedure's very simple (it is due to Willard Gibbs).
First define your prior information, without telling any fibs.
On this space of possibilities, a constraint is then applied
For every piece of data, until all are satisfied.

If the states you thought were possible, in setting up this game,
And the real possibilities in Nature are the same,
Then LO! you see before you (there is nothing more to grind)
Reproducible connections that experimenters find.

But the principles of logic are the same in every field,
And regardless of your ignorance, you'll always know they yield
What your information indicates; and (whether good or bad)
The best predictions one could, from data you had."

Sal hotelu Waldorf Astoria, kde se jiz tradicni tiskova konference tohoto nejvetsiho americkeho genia konala, hrmel ohlusujicim a dlouhotrvajicim potleskem. Dlouhotrvajici potlesk trval celou hodinu - Jara da Cimrman vsak z toho potlesku slysel jen prvni dve minuty, protoze se mu pri hlubokych uklonach zamotala hlava a spadl z podia do orchestriste, zpusobil si otres mozku a musel byt prepraven do nemocnicniho osetreni. Za tohoto pobytu v nemocnici, inspirovan pohledem na v rohu stojici vahu a meridlo vysky osob, rozhodl se Cimrman meritelne fyziologii a craniologii.

Jak zde jiz jini vazeni kolegove (obzvlast hradecko-pardubicka sekce, ostatni sekce jsou ponekud didusineptni) mnohokrat diskutovali, Cimrman se zabyval problemy lidske inteligence v navaznosti na ruzne telesne vyvyseniny - znamym prikladem jsou jeho vyzkumy ohledne tzv. Cimrmanova pahrbku.

Z dokumentu, volne pristupnych v Library of Congress (Library of Congress Catalog Card 22-290664590-llau0ykCuf, ISBN- 0-8120-47891-2x), je ale zrejme ze Cimrman se neomezil ve svem studiu telesnych vyvysenin na mereni pouze pahrbku lebecnich. Prvnim takovym dukazem je Cimrmanovo dilo, zalozene na Cimrmanovych vyzkumech v oblasti Ostravska, ale presto uz napsane anglicky, pod strucnym nazvem "Beaks". Do cestiny bylo toto dilo prelozeno s mnohem delsim nazvem (prekladatel si myslel, ze je chytrejsi nez autor, jako obvykle): "Ostravaci maji kratke zobaky".

Tohle bylo nastesti jen dilo uvodni. Cimrman toto tema dale rozpracoval, doplnil dalsim merenim mnoha jinych vyvysenin a dalsimi vedeckymi zavery - coz po nejake dobe vydal jako doplnene a rozsirene vydani jeho bestselleru "Beaks" - tentokrat pod rymovanym nazvem: "Beaks and Dicks" - Cimrmanovu lasku k vysvetlovani slozitych vedeckych souvislosti netreba dale vysvetlovat. V ceskych zemich opet vysel preklad a opet mnohoslovny, i kdyz nevysloveny a ponekud zahadny (neni zcela jasne zda rymovani bylo do nazvu zahrnuto) "Ostravaci maji nejen kratke zobaky, ale i kratke...."

V teto souvislosti zustava nevyjasneno nahle preruseni spoluprace a pratelstvi mezi Jarou da Cimrmanem a postmistrem Vaskem, jinak pozdeji znamym pod pseudonymem Petr Bezruc - co je znamo, je ze prave v dobe jejich rozkolu se pratele radili, jakeho pseudonymu by mel postmistr Vasek pouzivat, ale ze Vasek se citil urazen Cimrmanovym navrhem. Jak znamo, postmist Vasek mel obe ruce v poradku.

Materialu v knihovne Congressu je mnoho, pratele, pracuji na tom - ne nadarmo byl Jara da Cimrman hrdym americkym obcanem a sve vyzkumy radne katalogoval v regalech teto bohulibe instituce naseho naroda. Jara mel foresight, neni pochyb, coz inspirovalo Johna Galsworthyho k jeho Saze.

Rosta

(za sekci Waterloo)
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Autorsko/badatelska poznamka:

K jedovate poznamce Jana Kucery , Dept. of Computer Science, "Fajn, je videt, ze Mr. Head-we-check umi napsat i prispevek, ktery se da cist bez narustu systolickeho tlaku do nebezpecne vyse a ktery neznamena pro konferenci Waterloo" - dodavame:

Waterloo! Dalsi priklad toho jak smerovana politicka orientace muze zatemnit mozky celych narodu na temer 200 let (a my se divime pouhym 45 rokum). Waterloo, jak videno z anglosaske Kanady, neni symbolem a synonymem katastrofy ci porazky, ale symbolem vitezstvi! Ano, vitezstvi. NASI tam totiz vyhrali! Myslite si ze by Anglicani pojmenovali po Waterloo cele nadrazi v Londyne, kdyby to pro ne symbolizovalo nejaky pruser? Nikoliv - prave naopak! Nadrazi se nehejba (jak znamo) a bude tam furt, a furt pripominat jak jsme tem uchylnym zabozroutum nakopali prdel. Touto otrockou naturou ceskeho naroda se zabyval uz Jara da Cimrman ve svem ranem spise "Die Austerlitz Mentalitat - Eine Meine Kleine Tschechische Problem" - ulozenem dnes v Osterreichische Staatsarchive ve Wien (kde jinde), pozdeji inkorporovaneho do rozsahlejsi spisu (se zcela novym nahledem na situaci), ktery Jara vydal uz doma, v Americe, pojmenovanem "They can pucker up and kiss my ass - The problems of advancement od the real knowledge in the fields of Zvolen among the long-term brainwashed population". - Spis je, jako obvykle, k videni v knihovne Congressu.

Last updated on July 5,1996